Red and Blue COVID gap widens

The New York Times: U.S. Covid Deaths Get Even Redder

The brief version: The gap in Covid’s death toll between red and blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point. In October, 25 out of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from Covid, more than three times higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties (7.8 per 100,000). October was the fifth consecutive month that the percentage gap between the death rates in Trump counties and Biden counties widened. Some conservative writers have tried to claim that the gap may stem from regional differences in weather or age, but those arguments fall apart under scrutiny. (If weather or age were a major reason, the pattern would have begun to appear last year.) The true explanation is straightforward: The vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing severe Covid, and almost 40 percent of Republican adults remain unvaccinated, compared with about 10 percent of Democratic adults. (Leonhardt, 11/8) (Found in Kaiser Health News)


I'm incredulous. As the death toll rises, it would seem that more people would opt for the vaccine no matter their politics. The lies and falsehoods on the internet seem to have more credibility among the the rural red state population.


The Guardian reports, In the United States, there is a renewed campaign to vaccinate rural Americans due to the stark difference in Covid-19 cases and deaths among those living in less-populated areas compared with towns and cities. Rural residents are now twice as likely to die from Covid-19 as Americans in metropolitan areas. Yet rural areas tend to lag at least 10% behind metropolitan areas when it comes to vaccination – and this hesitancy is exacerbating already existing health issues. (Schreiber, 11/9)

Groups still push for vaccine exemptions, resist getting shots —

Poynters PolitiFact debunks the most common hoaxes.

• Misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines continues to spread on Facebook and other social media, with help from public figures like Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

• PolitiFact has fact-checked online hoaxes and claims about the COVID-19 vaccines’ safety and efficacy, trials, ingredients, purpose and side effects.

• The COVID-19 vaccines were proven to be safe and effective through a rigorous testing process. Their ingredients are public, and they do not include microchips for government tracking, metals or other toxic materials. They are not mandatory in the U.S.

• The COVID-19 vaccines do not alter your DNA or affect fertility, and they cannot “shed” to impact unvaccinated people. They have not caused widespread death and disease.

Raising Money? Tell a Good Story

Relate by Telling Stories

So many fund raising appeals are based on need. No, not the need of those being served. The need of the non-profit. As a former boss said, you're leaving money on the table. It is, as if, your need will somehow translate into action. A list of your services hardly qualifies as reasons for giving. Think of it this way, if you were an unemployment service, is it more effective to say you have 500 clients, or tell the story of how you helped a particular client find meaningful work?

Instead tell stories that intrigue, inspire, motivate, rally, ignite advocacy, and secure donations.

The Network for Good has a nifty little page on their website, Top 3 Storytelling Essentials for Fundraising.

I've copied and pasted it for you here. (You can also go to the link I've provided.)

Once Upon a Time…

Whether you prefer to curl up with a good book or get lost in a film, the story is what captures our imagination. A good narrative brings people together and forms a common ground; it evokes emotion, sparks passion, and creates empathy.

For a nonprofit, a good story can:

• intrigue journalists
• inspire donors
• motivate staff and board
• rally supporters
• ignite advocacy
• secure corporate sponsorship

Stories are the basic building blocks for reaching our goals.

As fundraisers, you’re responsible for arousing sympathetic emotions and inspiring action. The most powerful way to do that is to tell a great story. But what makes your story great? What do you need to include?

The essential elements of any good story are the character, desire, and conflict. 

Character

Your protagonist is who your audience relates to. Personalize your organization and mission. Look at your data and find those case studies that can serve as representational stories for the work you do. People are twice as likely to give a charitable gift when presented with an emotion-inducing personal story that focuses exclusively on one character’s plight. 

Desire

We all want something. What is the desire within your character’s story? Is it a need to change their world, to obtain something, get rid of something, restore order, or escape a threat? Make sure their need is powerful and immediate.

Conflict

Conflict refers to the obstacles that arise and prevent the character from getting whatever she or he wants. Powerful stories about relatable people overcoming challenges inspire the reader (or listener) to help. Tap into those universal human emotions and your audience will engage with you.

Particularly when it comes to telling your nonprofit’s origin story—whether you’re discovering how to tell it for the first time, or simply want to refresh your approach—a powerful narrative is the foundation of successful fundraising.

The idea is to raise the passions of your potential donors. Try relating to them with success stories about the people you serve. Tug at the heartstrings. Inspire action.

Why People Lie

And Why We Believe Them

Everybody does it. When we were little we lied to our parents, hoping we wouldn't get into trouble. We exaggerated our accomplishments to our friends. We've omitted things to influence the outcome. We've fibbed to keep from hurting people. Most of this stuff is harmless, until it isn't. When is that? When it hurts people, betrays a trust, deliberately misleads, it's used to keep others in their place. You could probably come up with more reasons, but big lies today are clearly unethical and lead to violent behavior. And in some cases, that's the goal. Many times when we lie, we're simply in denial about our own behavior, and we might not care who we hurt.  

According to Psychology Today, there are six reasons why people lie.  

 -David J. Ley PhD

1. The lie matters to the liar.  The number one reason people lie when it just doesn’t matter is because they actually think it matters. 

2. Telling the truth feels like giving up control. Often, people tell lies because they are trying to control a situation and exert influence toward getting the decisions or reactions they want. The truth can be “inconvenient. ” 

3. They don’t want to disappoint you. People who tell lie after lie are often worried about losing the respect of those around them.

4. Lies snowball. They get out of control. Eventually,  we’re arguing about the color of the sky, because to admit anything creates the potential of the entire house of cards tumbling. 

5. It’s not a lie to them. Multiple studies demonstrate that our memories are influenced by many things, that they change over time, and that they are essentially reconstructed each time we think about them. 

6. They want it to be true. Sometimes, liars hope that they can make something come true by saying it over and over, and by believing it as hard as they can. In today’s environment of “alternative facts,” it’s hard not to see this as somewhat justified.

So many people deny the facts laid out before them. Why?

I went to Vital Briefings website to find out more.

a) We want to,

b) it fits our view,

c) we're accustomed to believing the source.

But facts matter

 David Schrieberg points out that facts matter. Anybody who is the business of reporting information needs to support a higher ethical standard than the run of mill meme on social media. But putting the facts out there may not be enough anymore.

“Think about what is now required for a Republican politician to be considered a party member in good standing. He or she must pledge allegiance to policy doctrines that are demonstrably false; he or she must, in effect, reject the very idea of paying attention to evidence.” PAUL KRUGMAN, THE NEW YORK TIMES

According to Schrieberg recent research on this subject focus on three explanations, which can be linked, as to why people are willing to ignore facts in their process of making judgements.

#1: Motivated Reasoning - Selectively choosing evidence.

#2: Confirmation Bias - It feels good to ‘stick’ to our guns’ even if we are wrong,” JACK AND SARA GORMAN

#3: Illusory Truth Effect - The more times you read, hear or watch a story, the more you believe it’s true. 

So, what can we do? 

Schrieberg suggests:

• Consume less.
• Be very selective in the news you consume.
• Check out the sources you choose. Do they adhere to genuine journalistic practices? If they have biases, are they clearly stated and presented? Do they present multiple sides to the story, but not necessarily giving them all equal weight? Are their conclusions based on responsible reporting?
• Be wary of sites that don’t clearly present the sources of their revenue.
• Avoid sources displayed in your social media feeds that you can’t verify and/or lack legitimate expertise in the subject matter.
• Don’t rely solely on breaking news. Seek out more in-depth stories and analyses to inform your opinions and decisions.

It Shouldn't Be This Bad

 

AP Photo Josh Reynolds

COVID's Decline

It's really good news. Better days are ahead. Though impossible to predict, the trends are, for the moment, downward.

We Trail The Rest

Refusal of the vaccine is holding us back. According to The Morning from the New York Times,

Despite all the encouraging news, one shadow still hangs over the U.S.: The pandemic does not need to be nearly as bad it is.

About 1,500 Americans have died of Covid every day over the past week. For older age groups, the virus remains a leading cause of death. And the main reason is that millions of Americans have chosen to remain unvaccinated. Many of them are older and have underlying medical conditions, leaving them vulnerable to severe versions of Covid.

For older people, the effects of vaccination are profound. In late August, near the height of the Delta wave, 24 out of every 10,000 unvaccinated Americans 65 and above were hospitalized with Covid symptoms, according to the C.D.C. Among fully vaccinated Americans 65 and above, the number was 1.5 per 10,000.

Even so, many Americans are saying no to a shot. Among affluent countries, the U.S. is one of the least vaccinated, trailing Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and others. Less vaccination means more death.

Vaccine Opposition

Why some people don't want a Covid-19 vaccine

To find out more about vaccine hesitancy, I went to a trusted news source, The BBC, instead of Social Media sources. They came up with the 5 C's. Their report cautions against lumping the majority of those with reservations with the extreme views of the fringe elements within the anti-vaxxers. 

"They're very vocal, and they have a strong presence offline and online," says Mohammad Razai at the Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, who has written about the various psychological and social factors that can influence people's decision-making around vaccines. "But they’re a very small minority."

According to the article, scientists began studying vaccine hesitancy long before COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan in December 2019. They have explored various models which attempt to capture the differences in people's health behavior. One of the most promising is known as the 5Cs model, which considers the following psychological factors:

Confidence: the person's trust in the vaccines efficacy and safety, the health services offering them, and the policy makers deciding on their rollout

Complacency: whether or not the person considers the disease itself to be a serious risk to their health

Calculation: the individual's engagement in extensive information searching to weigh up the costs and benefits

Constraints (or convenience): how easy it is for the person in question to access the vaccine

Collective responsibility: the willingness to protect others from infection, through one's own vaccination

Dialog

There are some who will never be convinced. There are others who can be through dialog. A mass message, a once size fits all marketing approach will not change the minds of those who are hesitant.

I saw a picture of a worker at the Bath Iron Works in Maine. He is among a small minority there refusing the mandate. His opposition is fueled by his politics. The sign reads, "Freedom of choice or civil war. You choose." I'm guessing this worker will never be convinced. The mantra of imminent civil war is being perpetrated by right wing extremists. His views are fueled by his extremism.

Vaccine mandate creates conflict with defiant workers

Facts matter. That's where journalism come in. The dialog needs to be informed by factual information. I've engaged in conversation with people who insist on swaying the conversation with falsehoods and misinterpretations. While I listened, I made clear my stance, and that the stance was based on evidence. I wasn't nasty, just insistent.

 

Please, don't say that! (1.0)

 

Avoid saying:

Good bye!

I heard it this weekend on a commercial radio station. A weekend announcer told his listeners this was it for him today. And next weekend tune in at another time and day for his new shift. 

• First, nobody cares! except for his grandmother. Then, maybe she doesn't care either.
• Second, you told anybody listening to tune out or turn off the radio. Why would you do that?
• Third, there was no forward promotion. Remember that? Increasing time spent listening? It raises the station share, making it more appealing to advertisers, contributors and underwriters.
• Fourth, it's a total misunderstanding about how radio works. The listeners chose the station because of the content, not you. Loyalty depends on consistent appeal from the station's programming.

Listening barriers

There are plenty of examples in public radio of personalities saying goodbye. That's because content people always thought in terms of 'their' show. Garrison Keillor always said goodbye twice over the last three minutes. For the longest time, the producers and editors at All Things Considered as being a show with a beginning, middle and end, while the listeners actually tuned in when they could.  That's the problem with most weekend programming, churning the audience with hello's and goodbyes. 

You better make the most of your breaks. It's your only opportunity to create tune in, recurrence and increased occasions.

Good luck, and goodbye. Oh dang, I just did it to myself!

Supply Chain Problems

Meeting Demand 

When I worked in the manufacturing world, when demand increased, and supplies were low, we all worked more hours until more people could be hired and trained. Since some of the work called for skilled machinists in the shop or skilled labor in the tool crib, or skilled people in the foundry, it might take longer to ramp up. But ramp up we did. The company offered the training for free. The idea was to offer a service our customers could rely on. We wanted to make sure we took care of their needs in a timely manner. Investing in the future kept costs down. There were no shortages to drive costs up. It was a big picture approach.

Has This Changed?

Look at the supply chain issues. This problem has been apparent since the early days of the pandemic. That's over a year ago. If there's money to be made and jobs to be had, it would seem the bottlenecks in the supply chain are an opportunity? Why does it take a pointed reminder from the president that you might need to put in more hours to solve this issue?

Super Spreaders

 12 People are Mostly Responsible

According to NPR, researchers have found just 12 people are responsible for the bulk of the misleading claims and outright lies about COVID-19 vaccines that proliferate on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.

"The 'Disinformation Dozen' produce 65% of the shares of anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms," said Imran Ahmed, chief executive officer of the Center for Countering Digital Hate, which identified the accounts."

"At the outset of this research, we identified a dozen individuals who appeared to be extremely influential creators of digital anti-vaccine content. These individuals were selected either because they run anti-vaccine social media accounts with large numbers of followers, because they produce high volumes of anti-vaccine content or because their growth was accelerating rapidly at the outset of our research in February. "

What's the motivation?
Greed, what else?

NPR reports, for many anti-vaccine advocates with a business on the side. They promote false claims about the dangers vaccines pose, while selling treatments, supplementals or other services. Their potential market is the roughly 20% of Americans say they do not want to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to recent polling according to NPR.

For those with something to sell, anti-vaccine misinformation serves a second important purpose.

"One of the things that antivaxxers have to do to sell their own remedies ... is to persuade people not to trust authorities they've trusted in the past." 

"By using their debunked theories to turn people away from mainstream medicine, these entrepreneurs are creating customers: "Once they've managed to hook someone, they can then sell to them for a lifetime." -npr