Showing posts with label COVID 19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COVID 19. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Red and Blue COVID gap widens




The New York Times: U.S. Covid Deaths Get Even Redder


The brief version: The gap in Covid’s death toll between red and blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point. In October, 25 out of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from Covid, more than three times higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties (7.8 per 100,000). October was the fifth consecutive month that the percentage gap between the death rates in Trump counties and Biden counties widened. Some conservative writers have tried to claim that the gap may stem from regional differences in weather or age, but those arguments fall apart under scrutiny. (If weather or age were a major reason, the pattern would have begun to appear last year.) The true explanation is straightforward: The vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing severe Covid, and almost 40 percent of Republican adults remain unvaccinated, compared with about 10 percent of Democratic adults. (Leonhardt, 11/8) (Found in Kaiser Health News)


I'm incredulous. As the death toll rises, it would seem that more people would opt for the vaccine no matter their politics. The lies and falsehoods on the internet seem to have more credibility among the the rural red state population.


The Guardian reports, In the United States, there is a renewed campaign to vaccinate rural Americans due to the stark difference in Covid-19 cases and deaths among those living in less-populated areas compared with towns and cities. Rural residents are now twice as likely to die from Covid-19 as Americans in metropolitan areas. Yet rural areas tend to lag at least 10% behind metropolitan areas when it comes to vaccination – and this hesitancy is exacerbating already existing health issues. (Schreiber, 11/9)

Groups still push for vaccine exemptions, resist getting shots —

Poynters PolitiFact debunks the most common hoaxes.

  • Misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines continues to spread on Facebook and other social media, with help from public figures like Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

  • PolitiFact has fact-checked online hoaxes and claims about the COVID-19 vaccines’ safety and efficacy, trials, ingredients, purpose and side effects.

  • The COVID-19 vaccines were proven to be safe and effective through a rigorous testing process. Their ingredients are public, and they do not include microchips for government tracking, metals or other toxic materials. They are not mandatory in the U.S.

  • The COVID-19 vaccines do not alter your DNA or affect fertility, and they cannot “shed” to impact unvaccinated people. They have not caused widespread death and disease.




Sunday, April 11, 2021

COVID's Spread. Why?

 

Ask the question!

According to reports in the NY Times:

Michigan’s coronavirus outbreak is the worst in America, with more than 7,000 new cases daily.

But with residents weary of restrictions, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, above this month, has avoided calling for another lockdown and is instead appealing to personal responsibility. Her position reflects the shifting politics of the pandemic, which is increasingly being shaped by growing public impatience and the hope offered by vaccines.

As Governor Whitmer struggles with pandemic politics, the rest of us can learn from her dilemma. Perhaps, she just needs to do the right thing, and follow the advice of those who know what they are doing when it comes to the pandemic.

 

What can journalists do? 

The most important question is Why? Follow that up with, what's next.?

We should be asking why? Why is the spread so bad in Michigan? 

Then we should be asking what should we do to mitigate the spread?

Look for benchmarks. Look for places where infection rates remain low and ask why.

The answers are needed to help deflect the next surge, because surely, it is coming.

Why

  • New COVID-19 cases have risen to about 65,000 per day over the past week.
  • Experts are concerned this new rise in cases could signal the beginning of a new COVID-19 spike due to relaxed restrictions, more infectious variants of the virus, and large social gatherings.
  • Vaccinations are beginning to help ease the pandemic, but experts say the public still needs to adhere to safety protocols to avoid an even bigger surge in cases over the coming weeks.  Healthline.com
According to the CDC, A review of the week's key data from CDC's COVID Data Tracker, cases were reported as of April 7, 2021, including 74,860 new cases. Daily Trends in Number of New COVID-19 Hospital Admissions in the United States.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Healthline that new cases are still too high and he’s concerned about what may lie ahead.

“We have not yet achieved control of the spread of this virus,” he said. “The even more contagious variant strains are accelerating the spread of the infection along with the increasingly carefree behavior of many — not using their masks, going to bars, gathering in groups.”

“Younger adults now are becoming the ‘dreaded spreaders’ in our communities,” he explained. “They go to gatherings, such as in bars, share the virus in those venues, and then spread the virus further at home and in their neighborhoods.”

“We all need to maintain social distancing and wearing masks for a bit longer,” he added.

Schaffner said there are concerns about new “double variants” that are appearing, especially among children.

However, he added that there’s a way to defeat these latest variants.

“The more we look, the more variants we will find,” he said. “Fortunately, most of them, including the new ‘double variant,’ can be prevented by vaccination and social distancing. As we vaccinate more and more people, the virus will have fewer opportunities to mutate and create variants.”

Three Reasons?

According to Dr. Calvin Sun, an NYC-based emergency medicine physician, there are three main factors driving this recent uptick: the virus mutating, the rolling back of safety measures, and the recent increase in travel.  yahoo financial



Friday, March 19, 2021

Pandemic Politics

 
Photo credit The Climate Reality Project

Tell Them Anything


Just make sure it's what they want to hear.


The pandemic doesn't care about our politics, but our political leanings are leading to misconceptions about how we perceive the deadly virus. David Leonhardt of the New York times reports that people on the right and the left are misrepresenting the facts.

The mistakes people make

More than one-third of Republican voters, for example, said that people without Covid symptoms could not spread the virus. Similar shares said that Covid was killing fewer people than either the seasonal flu or vehicle crashes. All of those beliefs are wrong, and badly so. Asymptomatic spread is a major source of transmission, and Covid has killed about 15 times more Americans than either the flu or vehicle crashes do in a typical year.

Democrats, on the other hand, are more likely to exaggerate the severity of Covid. When asked how often Covid patients had to be hospitalized, a very large share of Democratic voters said that at least 20 percent did. The actual hospitalization rate is about 1 percent.

By The New York Times | Source: Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study

Democrats are also more likely to exaggerate Covid’s toll on young people and to believe that children account for a meaningful share of deaths. In reality, Americans under 18 account for only 0.04 percent of Covid deaths.


What's The Point? 

Having the information in this article is helpful, but to make a real impact, to start changing minds, people have to receive the message. Think about the rule of seven which suggests consumers need to hear a message seven times before they will consider taking action. Then it might be another three repetitions before someone will actually act on that message.

We're going up against echo chambers and algorithms. People have become insulated from outside opinions. Algorithms reinforce the bubble by only feeding information that supports predispositions. Republicans and the Russians used this system well. They targeted information to groups based on algorithms to reinforce beliefs already in place. The divide, the partisanship, becomes deeper as politicians repeat the same lies over and over.

Repetition

Countering false information with fact based journalism, is it possible? According to the Gallup Poll, there is hope.

Perhaps the best news from the Gallup survey was that some people were willing to revisit their beliefs when given new information. Republicans took the pandemic more seriously after being told that the number of new cases was rising, and Democrats were more favorable to in-person schooling after hearing that the American Academy of Pediatrics supports it.

“That’s very encouraging,” Jonathan Rothwell told me. “It’s discouraging that people didn’t already know it.” Jonathan Rothwell, Gallup’s principal economist. Leonhardt/NY Times

Covering something once is not a guarantee that the issue is going to be heard. Since repetition is used so often and so well, covering the issue again from a fresh perspective should not be a problem for any news organization. Don't fall into the deep well of self congratulation, "We've already covered that." Your news consumers may not have heard you the first time.

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Playing politics with our health


 Trump's political appointees are playing games with our safety and well-being. Political appointees at the Department of Health and Human Services are scuttling reports from the CDC they believe might be unflattering to the president. Why? Because the reports might hurt his chances at reelection.

This is from the the NY Times.

The Times reconstructed the White House’s push for a plasma therapy, and found a pattern that helps explain the intensifying concern that President Trump could demand pre-Election Day approval of a vaccine.

For instance, in August, President Trump called the director of the National Institutes of Health, demanding fast action to approve expanded use of convalescent plasma to treat the coronavirus. Even though it didn’t come, Mr. Trump announced the expansion of the treatment anyway, with the F.D.A.’s approval, on the eve of the Republican National Convention.

Tensions over the White House’s urgency to show progress against the pandemic, which has killed more than 193,500 people in the U.S., are also playing out at the Department of Health and Human Services, where political appointees have repeatedly meddled in weekly outbreak reports prepared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Where's our integrity? Where's our ethics? Where's our compassion for our fellow human beings? Where's our common decency? Where's our love for all people? This last question is supposed to be a bedrock value of Christianity. What does this say about his so-called Christian supporters? We're way too deep into partisan politics. It's needs to end, now!

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Not There Yet

Testing this week has slowed because we're running out of elements used in the test. Without the availability of widespread testing, it is impossible to measure the impact and extent of the virus.
Up to this point, we have not had wide spread testing.
Without testing we're all at a higher risk. The number of deaths in New York went up by 4000 in one day this week. Most of those deaths are attributed to COVID-19 after the fact because of reported symptoms. Most of those victims never got tested. How many people stay at home and recover without knowing they had the virus?
How comfortable are you about going back to work without knowing more?

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

We Are In This Together



The pandemic has succeeded because it does not recognize all the things we have created to differentiate ourselves. To continue to believe that we are at “war” with somebody or something does little to address that we are now more than ever bound to one another and share responsibilities and obligations to one another.

- Aaron Sanchez

Think about this. The president wants us to perceive him as a wartime president. That's so he can see himself as the winner against an evil foe. He wants to be the one who led us out of the pandemic. Actually, it will be all of us working together that will take us out of this crisis. Everybody is at risk. The answer will come from an inclusive community that works together. No barriers. No us versus them. No singular hero saving us all.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Mishandling a crisis

Incompetence - Greed


Back up a minute. Take in a broader view of what has transpired in the past 72 hours from an administration that is in total chaos. 

This is jaw dropping. When these stories are all put together, the sheer weight of the consequences of this administration's incompetence and the greed leaves me breathless. Read it! Remember this in November.



The article is by author and historian Heather Cox Richardson. I would not have seen this without the help of Jeffrey Dvorkin.

April 1, 2020 (Wednesday)
After a very long day of teaching on-line (which I find exhausting) and celebrating the new book’s publication date (woo hoo!) I fell deeply asleep on the couch early this evening and awoke hours later to read the news. In that quiet clarity of being newly rested in the middle of the night, reading the news felt very much like history research, when you are dropped into the sources and getting a sense of what the world looked like at a certain moment in time.

If I were looking back at today from the vantage point of a hundred years from now, I would write that the government, whose systems for handling a crisis have been dismantled, is faltering badly as inexperienced officials are trying to respond to a pandemic by relying on the private sector.
Hardly a novel interpretation, but it really jumps out when you spend a couple of hours reading the day’s news all at once.
Here’s what I saw:
The news broke that the United States has been sending medical supplies to other countries while our own health care workers don’t have masks or PPE (personal protective equipment). Politico revealed that an administration official called counterparts in Thailand to ask for PPE only to be told by a confused official on the other end who said that the U.S. was shipping those very supplies to Thailand. One shipment had already arrived, and another was on its way. Vice President Mike Pence, who is in charge of the administration’s coronavirus task force, immediately halted the shipment. It appears that there has been no coordination between the administration and USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, so we have apparently been exporting the very supplies we need at home.
This created a furor over the fact that we also sent 17.8 tons of medical supplies, including masks, gowns, gauze, and respirators to China in February, after the severity of our own impending crisis was already clear. The administration has said these supplies were “donated,” but I have not been able to track down by whom.
Politico also broke the story that since March 12, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has been in charge of his own coronavirus response team to get the private sector on board to fight the crisis. Trump has been reluctant to activate the Defense Production Act, a law that enables the government to encourage manufacturers to produce vital equipment and protects them from losses when they do. Bizarrely, the Trump administration—like all others since the law went into effect in the 1950s—uses this act all the time to respond to natural disasters, to move supplies around during emergencies, and so on, but refuses to do so now. Instead, it appears Trump has tapped Kushner to coordinate with private industry. In that capacity, he and his outside experts—including a number from the consulting firm McKinsey—are acting as a sort of independent cell without government oversight and are overruling the teams already in place.
We learned that the Obama administration tried five years ago to address what it perceived as a lack of ventilators in case of a pandemic, paying $13.8 million to a Pennsylvania manufacturer—a subsidiary of a huge Dutch appliance and technology corporation-- to create a cheap, easy ventilator to stockpile. The FDA cleared the device in September and the Department of Health and Human Services, which had provided the $13.8 million, ordered 10,000 of them for $3,280 each. Instead of providing those ventilators, the company instead hiked its prices and sold them overseas. Trump has declined to use the DPA to get the company to produce the ventilators it developed for the U.S. Instead, Kushner’s team is negotiating with it to build 43,000 more expensive hospital ventilators for the U.S.
Pence tried to suggest that the administration’s slow response was because China had been slow about admitting the full extent of the disease and that the Centers for Disease Control had initially mischaracterized the danger from it as low. (While China did try to quash information about the disease, the CDC was clear about it.) Pence continued: “I don’t believe the President has ever belittled the threat of the coronavirus.” (There is overwhelming evidence Trump did exactly this.)
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not wanted to take the responsibility for closing down his state and has been trying to get Trump to do it. But Trump doesn’t want to do it either. So the two of them have been trying to get the other to do it as the infection and death rates in Florida climb. Finally, today, DeSantis made the call, but he exempted churches, synagogues, and houses of worship from its provisions, calling them essential businesses. This will permit religious leaders like Rodney Howard-Browne to keep his megachurch open. On Monday, sheriff’s deputies arrested Howard-Browne for unlawful assembly and a violation of health emergency rules.
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp has finally issued shelter-in-place order for Georgia, too, as the state reported 4,748 cases of Covid-19 and 56 deaths. He said a key change was the recent news that people could transmit the virus without showing symptoms, but of course that news is not recent; we have known it virtually since the beginning.
DeSantis has another crisis on his hands, too. A cruise ship with infected passengers is sitting off the coast of Florida, and he doesn’t want it to dock in the state. Trump is not taking responsibility for that, either. So DeSantis has finally announced he will take off the ship the 49 people on it who hail from Florida… but not the others, including those from other countries, who continue to float on a ship with disease on it. This situation needs an immediate solution.
The federal government had a similar problem aboard the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier where Covid-19 was spreading. Tired of waiting for his superiors to get his people to safety, the ship’s commander wrote a scathing letter claiming that keeping the sailors on the ship was “an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with those Sailors entrusted to our care.” After the letter was made public, Navy officials agreed to offload sailors to quarantine in Guam to keep the disease at bay.
Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler, appointed by Kemp and married to the CEO of the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, revealed more stock trades today that took place after she had attended a Senate briefing on the severity of the coming epidemic. She sold stock in retail stores and bought stock in a company that makes PPEs. She maintains she has done nothing wrong.
And Devin Nunes (R-CA), the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee and associate of indicted political operative Lev Parnas said on the Fox News Channel today he thought that closing schools was “way overkill” and that it was hurting the economy unnecessarily. California has more than 6,900 cases and at least 150 people there have died from it.
Finally, it appears that Trump will continue golfing despite the crisis. Although staying mum about who the “dignitary” they need to protect is, the Secret Service has signed a $45,000 contract to rent golf carts in Sterling, Virginia, where Trump has a golf course that remains open despite Virginia’s stay-at-home order.
It’s important to note that any of these stories might have good explanations. Maybe shoring up USAID was worth losing our PPEs, or there’s a good reason not to use the DPA to get more ventilators from the company who contracted to produce them. But if so, we are not hearing those explanations. Instead, what jumps out at this hodge-podge of stories is the lack of organization and expertise, and the apparent every-man-for-himself attitude at the highest levels of government.
That attitude sure doesn’t seem to be producing an effective response to the global pandemic that is threatening our lives.


Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Memes and the rage machine



COVID-19 Memes

There's a Meme circulating that blames the media for over-hyping the coronavirus. It goes something like this, "170,00 people have recovered from COVID-19. Why don't we ever hear about that?" 

The media does talk about the recovery rate. The problem might be the way we use social media. Whatever we click on creates a profile of what may interest us, and the algorithms keep sending us more of the same.

The actual number of recoveries may be much higher than quoted in the meme you shared. The number of cases may also be higher. This is because there are not enough test kits, or cases that go unreported. Tracking of cases after diagnosis is erratic too.

Many will be infected. Most will recover. The projected death toll is staggering.

One thing I do know, memes are used to feed the rage machine. I've shared them too. Maybe we all need to do a little more homework. It took me a quick search to find some numbers and an explanation from a real news source.

Blame Social Media. It is a weakness in our system. We can work around that weakness.

Monday, March 9, 2020

COVID - 19 Things that don't work!


Bogus Cures


There's all sorts of misinformation about the Coronavirus spreading all over the web.

The BBC lists six things that absolutely do not work.

1. Garlic

We're not talking about vampires.  The WHO (World Health Organization) says that while it is "a healthy food that may have some antimicrobial properties", there's no evidence that eating garlic can protect people from the new coronavirus.

2. 'Miracle minerals'

Last year, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned about the dangers to health of drinking MMS. Health authorities in other countries have also issued alerts about it.

3. Home-made hand sanitiser
There have been many reports of shortages of hand sanitiser gel, as washing your hands is one key way to prevent spread of the virus. There are rumors that Tito's Vodka can be used. Unfortunately, Tito's does not have enough alcohol to be used as a hand sanitizer. Ordinary soap and water works really well.

4. Drinkable silver
No, no, a thousand times no! There's a televangelist promoting this stuff. He's selling it.  there's clear advice from the US health authorities that there's no evidence this type of silver is effective for any health condition. More importantly, it could cause serious side effects including kidney damage, seizures and argyria - a condition that makes your skin turn blue.

5. Drinking water every 15 minutes

Drinking water will keep you hydrated, but there is no proof that you can flush the virus out of your system by drinking lots of water. This fake cure has been copied and pasted many times on Facebook

6. Heat and avoiding ice cream

Trying to heat your body or expose yourself to the sun - presumably to make it inhospitable to the virus - is completely ineffective, according to Prof Bloomfield.  Once the virus is in your body, there's no way of killing it - your body just has to fight it off.Outside the body, "to actively kill the virus you need temperatures of around 60 degrees [Celsius]", says Professor Bloomfield - far hotter than any bath.