Podcasting's Decline

 

Or...Maybe not

The Guardian reported in February that "the creation of new podcasts declined by 80 percent compared to the previous two years, despite viewership staying at an all-time high. Their experts point to the “Post-Pandemic Boom” of podcasts, a desire to create a podcast that has since depleted."

Maybe podcasting is just right-sizing post pandemic. The Interactive Advertising Bureau estimates that ad revenue from podcasts will surge to $4.2 billion by 2024. Leading the way now is celebrities and influencers. According to Conor Johnston in the Massachusetts Daily Collegian, "For influencers and celebrities at the height of their careers, it seems the new necessity is having a podcast. They’re everywhere. From Emma Chamberlain, Joe Rogan and now Alix Earle joining the scene, the rise of podcasting is palpable."

And there are plenty of listeners and viewers downloading podcasts. There are 464.7 million podcast listeners globally as of 2023. This number is predicted to reach 504.9 million by 2024. The podcast industry market size is $23.56 billion. There are over 5 million podcasts globally with over 70 million episodes between them. (demandesage.com)

Not everybody is enamored with the trend of people famous for being famous creating podcasts. Conor Johnston comments, "Even after all this cash greed, they still can’t do the podcasts right. But what did we expect from people that are only famous because of their grandiose lives and beauty?"

"Personally, sitting through an influencer podcast was by far the worst experience I’ve had. One such podcast, We’re All Insane, is hosted by influencer Devorah Roloff, and is insanely famous. It’s also hard to follow, doesn’t introduce anybody involved in the podcast and involves the influencer monotonously repeating words such as “right” and “yeah” in a valley girl accent for an hour. Even worse, the podcast is video recorded, a growing phenomenon as more who join the podcasting realm rely on their image more than their words."

"Despite these podcasts being generally bad, they gain viewers because of the hosts existing fame. For podcasters trying to independently break out without any existing renown, this creates a culture of making it exceptionally hard to be a successful podcaster. This is especially true considering how expensive it is to start a podcast. In many ways, influencers joining the world of podcasts will destroy it. The scripts are hard to follow, and they rely too heavily on their previous audiences and personal images. So, if you’re an up-and-coming content creator with an inclination to start a podcast, a message from this vexed writer: don’t."

Will big bucks be the end of meaningful content, and ultimately podcasting?

Podcast Income

Can Podcasts be a source of income for public radio? From a station's perspective...Yes ...as long as expectations aren't too high.

There are three sources of income for public radio. Member Support - Underwriting - Grants. Listener support for podcasts has lagged. Is that changing?

The headline reads...WNYC boosts podcast income with text-to-donate efforts...which is a little misleading. Digging deeper into the article in Current you will find that the amounts are small ($10), and there's no way to mine the data for follow-up information.

Voluntary Support

Does this mean the experiment is a failure? No! It means there is the possibility stations could cover the cost of podcasts, and WNYC is continuing the experiment to find ways to continue the funding discussion with text-to-donate contributors. The willingness of podcast users to voluntarily contribute for the content they consume is a hopeful sign. Obviously, not everybody is willing to pay, but how is that different from the current membership model?

WNPR experimented with a text-to-donate fundrive in 2008. The sames issues arose. The donation amounts were small and the link between the donation and the donor was non-existent. WNPR's text to donate drive differed in that we used the airwaves to generate texts. The pitch breaks were short and the number of breaks were limited. We got about 100 texts and about $1,000.

Self Sustaining?

Given the huge demand for revenue to operate a public radio station, there was no follow-up on the project at WNPR. If the funding source is viewed as an additional revenue stream related to a separate platform, expectations might be more in line with reality. The other challenge is to convert the podcast cohort into public radio supporters. At least text to donate is a beginning. When combined with other sources like grants, advertising and pay walls, some podcasts could pay for themselves.

The Funding Trifecta

The renewal of grants depends on meeting stated expectations. The same could be said for advertising. As long as the podcast delivers an audience, the revenue will continue to come in. The public radio funding model has always been sustained by voluntary contributions. The most stable source of income for public broadcasters has always been its donors. If the other two sources lagged (grants and underwriting), contributions offered stability. The success of podcasts in public media will be measured by their appeal to the audience.

Podcasting: Who's Downloading

Nielsen recently offered some insight into who is downloading and listening to Podcasts.

• 70% are between 18 and 44
• 44% are college graduates
• $83,700 average household income
• 65% have some sort of investment
• 75% have contributed to a cause in the past year.
• Top activities include swimming, bicycling, and running
• Nutrition, weight loss and appearance are important

The audience profile is very similar to the public radio profile with the exception of the age cohort. The research reinforces the audience data shared before...that is...Public Radio's draw for younger demographics is being drained by newer platforms. That does not mean giving up on one platform in favor of another. That means being on the platforms being used by the intended audience. It also means creating content that meets the expectations of the audience.

The report points out that if you create the podcast...they will come. But...Only if you can figure out how to make the content appealing to your audience. Nobody said this would be easy.

More details can be found in their report "IF YOU CREATE IT, WILL THEY COME? PRODUCING PODCAST CONTENT TO BUILD YOUR LISTENER BASE."

Radio Still Leads Time with Audio

News of Radio's Death is Greatly Exaggerated

Edison Research is reporting that Americans spend 54% of their audio time with AM and FM radio. This is giood news for Public Radio. Lately there's been a debate that Public Radio is losing it's grip. Podcasting is the hot platform and the disruption will soon eclipse radio broadcasting.

Not So Fast

Podcasting is just another means of reaching the public media audience. According to the research...

• 54% of the timeis spent with AM/FM
• 16% of the time is spent with owned music
• 15% with pureplay streaming audio
• 7% with SiriusXM
• TV music channels such as Music Choice command 5% 
• Podcasts account for 2% of all time spent with audio.

You can read more about time spent with audio by linking to Inside Radio.

To be sure, younger listeners are gravitating to mobile devices, but the amount of time spent with radio suggests Content and Program Directors continue to pay attention to the craft of good radio.
I remember looking at some of the early research done for public radio by Church and Bailey. The research mentioned that public radio listeners were avid consumers of all media. The same is still true today. There's just a lot more platforms and a many more opportunities.

Podcasts - The New VHS?

I struggled with the conclusion of this blog. I am not against podcasts or progress or new platforms. It's more about collecting and saving content that I may get to later. For me...later never seems to happen.

Digital Clutter

I was sorting through some of our stuff. Actually, I was looking for things to toss and I came across some VHS tapes. None of them have been watched. It looks as if I will never watch them for two reasons.

1. I no longer have a player
2. I'm no longer interested.

I'll save one tape. I contains video of my son when he was two. The rest is just trash.

I recently read articles about the generational divide for public radio and NPR. So...are podcasts the saving grace? The line that stood out was that there is no way to measure if all those downloaded podcasts are actually being listened to. Time Spent Listening for radio can be measured, but there's no way to determined of listeners are actually listening the content on podcasts. 

This is an important issue when it comes to building audience and loyalty. Marketing and development becomes more effective when positive outcomes from a listeners perspective can be demonstrated to the potential funder or contributor. Money follows audience.

I'm curious. How many podcasts are just taking up space on your device? How many do you actually listen to? Is there a way this could be measured? Opened emails can be measured with an email service. Analytics can show information about time spent on a blog site and website. Even the number of clicks on a page can be measured. Once a podcast is downloaded, what happens to the podcast is not traceable. Wouldn't it be nice if we could track actual usage for podcasts?

No Critical Mass?

But, are the numbers big enough to really matter? Serial is considered a breakout hit for podcasts. There were over 40 million downloads. It is estimated that each episode was downloaded 3.4 million times. Unfortunately, most podcasts don't come anywhere close to those numbers. Compare that with the weekly cume of the public radio station I listen to most. WNPR has over 200,000 listeners weekly. The weekly cume for public radio is 30 million. That's an unduplicated cume. I'm not sure, but the unduplicated weekly cume for Serial was 3.4 million. Cume is not the critical number when it comes to funding...the core audience is. Perhaps, if we could figure out the podcast's core?

I think the question is moot. Podcast's may be suited for the younger demographics of public radio's potential audience, but they may not be suitable for broadcast. Radio works best when it has a consistent audience appeal. You can tune in anytime and get what you want. It does not work well as a venue for appointment listening. Podcasts are all about appointments (so were VHS tapes).  The best part is the technology allows the user to make the appointment. We can make certain aspects of public radio programming available for on-demand listening and use social media to try to create a viral buzz, but as with most podcasts, don't expect the response and buzz that was created by Serial.

Podcast Fans - Lovers of Audio

But the headline said...

The headline posted on Inside Radio made me pause. Were people who love podcasts really listening to podcasts six hours a day?  After I read the article I was reassured because if this was true, there would be no future for public radio.

Podcast Fans Love Audio—Six Hours Daily

What the data from Edison Research’s quarterly “Share of Ear” report shows is that podcast lovers listen to a lot of audio. Edison uses a broad definition of audio including radio, satellite, streaming, music videos on YouTube and a consumer’s personal music. 

These are younger, well educated listeners using mobile devices. They spend most of their time listening to podcasts...about  33%. Radio is second with 20% of their time.  They spend over six hours a week listening to audio. The average American spends about fours a week.

Sound Familiar?

Public Radio's audience also consumes a lot of audio. The benchmark in the early 2000's was over six hours a week. The core audience at a station with strong audience appeal was around 12 hours a week.

Other findings, reported by Inside Radio on Friday, include: The shorter the podcast, the more likely listeners will listen to the full podcast. Half of all podcast time spent occurs on mobile devices, followed by computers. And middays and nights are podcasting “primetime.”

What's In It For Public Radio?

A reality check. According tot he research, 5% of all Americans are into podcasts. 95% are not!

 Most of Public Radio's resources need to be centered on drivetime. The content that continues to appeal in drivetime is the news and information public radio produces.  Drivetime is still radio's most important day part. Drivetime should continue to appeal to public radio's biggest audience.

The podcast crowd listens to public radio. We need to make sure we're on the platforms used by this audience. Podcasting is the best way for our content to reach these highly educated consumers of audio. Podcast lovers choose middays and nights to listen to content on their favorite platform. The top ten chart published by iTunes testifies to the appeal of public radio's content to this market segment.

• 1Hidden Brain
• 2This American Life
• 3TED Radio Hour
• 4Serial
• 5Radiolab
• 6Stuff You Should Know
• 7Undisclosed: The State Vs. Adnan Syed
• 8Fresh Air
• 9Guys We F****d
• 10Freakonomics Radio

Is it a question of resources? Local stations need to look at partnerships that will get them into the podcasting game.

Rise of Podcasts

It is all changing...but how fast?

It has been said many time before. Radio...as we know it...is dead. Television, Cable, Satellite Radio, Internet Radio...now podcasts?  Maybe.
Check out this report heard on Weekend Edition today.

Podcasts Rise In Popularity, Funded By Advertisers And Listeners

Funding includes crowd funding, and advertising. This makes a few of these podcasts self-sustaining. Are podcasts ready to supplant radio. By public radio standards the audience is still niche. The costs are a lot lower than radio. It's an advantage. Running a public radio station is expensive.

Disruptive Technology

New technology is around the corner that will take away radio's advantage in the car. John C. Dvorak is cohost of the No Agenda podcast. He says this new technology is also bringing into question the future of broadcasting itself. "I think it is disruptive. And eventually, when we have real-time Internet availability in a moving car, it's going to be very difficult for conventional radio to compete with this model. I just don't think it's possible."

Public Radio is safe for now. Once the community of listeners disperses in large enough numbers to other platforms, Public Radio will no longer be able to support itself. I fret that the true loss may be the editorial gatekeepers.  I search for trusted sources for information. Where are the firewalls and editorial standards in social media? I'm not sure I can trust bloggers and podcasters. Not from what I've read and heard.